Home

IW Latest Articles

Some thoughts about Berlusconi

by Wolfgang Münchau, FT

In my FT column this week, I wrote about the future of the Italy, striking a relatively positive tone. I had no idea that my suggestion of a Grand Coalition - which many people say is wishful thinking - may be more likely than we thought.

A Berlusconi-owned newspaper with the original name of Il Giornale has reported that the cavaliere is actually considering a coalition with Walter Veltroni's Partito Democratico, which is the newly merged centre-left party, which arose out of Margherita and the Democrats of the Left.

I have no idea whether this constellation can come about, but there is change in the air. Veltroni himself is of a generation of new leaders, who is almost certain to bring in new people once Prodi and his lot are gone.

Berlusconi is ultimately also a man of the past. He is 71 years old. If he forms another coalition of the centre-right, he may of course be able take over as prime minister if he wants to. But I suspect Berlusconi is probably less keen on governing now than he was in 2001. He himself no longer faces any legal action. His vendetta against the judiciary is essentially over.

And when politicians get older, they get sentimental, and start considering their place in history. And his place in history is probably not best assured by a repeat of his 2001-2006 performance. So the smart thing to do is to step aside (maybe in return for a promise to be elected president of the republic next time around).

That is an option I would not exclude. So this is not necessary going to a reversal to 2001. A Grand Coalition is not excluded, or a centre-right government under a different leader, even if Forza Italy were to win the elections, which is fairly safe bet. Quite fascinating, I find. 05.02.2008