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Med Union and Eastern Partnership are Rivals in the EU-Vision Contest

Marek Swierczynski for Atlantic Community

Now the Lisbon Treaty is almost over and done with, the EU is encouraged to look south- and eastwards. Initiatives by France and a Polish-Swedish team aim at creating buffer-spaces between the EU and unstable regions, but could create tensions that challenge the bloc’s unity.

France comes to the helm of the EU with a clear plan to pacify the North-African terrorist threats with a lump of money and upgrade the international position of those states that are keen. But just weeks before the French presidency begins, a firm hold wieghs on Mr Sarkozy's neck - one that will turn his head to the East if he seriously wants to look to the South.

The Eastern Partnership, proposed by Poland and Sweden, was more than a move on behalf of northern countries that fear domination by the EU's southern direction in external dealings. It was meant to supplement a cohesive behind-border plan, should there be one. Spain and Portugal do it for Latin America, France for North Africa and the Middle East, Britain to a certain extent for the US, and the whole of the EU takes care of the Western Balkans as they make their way into the club. Poland felt that the Eastern, post-Soviet direction remained unattended, and saw that as a threat to its position.

Officially very friendly with Sarkozy during his recent visit to Warsaw, Poland took a gamble with France to bolster the image of the EU's "eastern link", somewhat weakened by the ever closer German-Russian cooperation and the fact that further eastern expansion is currently low on the EU's priority list. Poland's fears are not unjustified. It is notable that just as Sarkozy came back from Warsaw, he greeted Russia's Prime Minister Putin in Paris as if he was still the country's president.

The next rotating presidencies seem to be promising for a balanced mix of south-east interests, if the EU agrees on how to marry the two directions. The French, the Spaniards and perhaps the Belgians may be closer to the Med Union; the Swedes, Czechs and Hungarians will probably do the job for the East before Poland takes the lead of the Council in 2011. The Council's decisions would surely require a scaling down of expectations in both cases, but equally they could reignite the debate on the EU's role and vision. But if both projects remain rivals - the EU will face a neck-breaking exercise every six months.

Will the enhanced partnership schemes be a substitute for or the first step towards membership? This is a question for further debate. The initiators of both plans admit the EU suffers from "expansion fatigue" and would not be able to take a new large country on board any time soon. But Poland is adamant that in the case of Ukraine, the Eastern Partnership should at least serve as a lever for membership application if not the opening of negotiations. Lukewarm reception of the idea in Kiev shows that in thinking Eastwards, it is easier to sell unrealistic hopes for membership than scaled-down but more likely-to-happen partnerships.