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Italy Heading for New Election

The Italian Parliament will today cease its activities ahead of new elections. This comes after the failure of negotiations to replace Prodi’s government with an interim executive aimed at giving the country a new electoral law and thus a more stable political setup.

President Giorgio Napolitano yesterday (5 February) started the procedure, bringing an end to the shortest parliament in Italian history after attempts to establish a new institutional government with a wide cross-party support failed.

Senate President Franco Marini was charged with this difficult task but yesterday decided to give up, citing the lack of a sufficient majority for a new experimental coalition. Now Prodi's government will act as caretaker until the new vote, foreseen for 13/14 April.

The centre-right, led by Silvio Berlusconi, has fiercely opposed the attempt, calling instead for immediate new elections. The centre-left has been in favour of a temporary government, but the internal divisions already evident in Prodi’s coalition again resurfaced.

The previously fragmented centre-right seems instead to have been rejuvenated by the perspective of an easy victory in fresh elections, with Berlusconi and his allies banking on being able to take advantage of increasing criticism of the last government.

However, the result of the new vote is uncertain. What it is very likely is that whoever will succeed will do so with a small margin so that the current weakness of the government will be repeated in a new combination.

To prevent this outcome, rumours indicate that in case of victory Berlusconi would be ready to accept members of the leading centre-left party, Partito Democratico, into the new executive. The Partito Democratico is led by current Mayor of Rome Walter Veltroni, widely recognised as Prodi's successor.

The idea of an apparently unnatural alliance between the former communist Veltroni and the fiercely anticommunist Berlusconi was even stronger before the collapse of Prodi's government. The two leaders may in fact together create a solid majority able to run the country and oust a range of small interest parties, considered one of the causes of chronic Italian political instability.

To succeed in this objective, Italy needs a new electoral law to replace the current one adopted by Berlusconi's government in 2005 during its final months in charge and considered unfit by its promoters themselves.

Another option to modify the current electoral law is a referendum. The idea was supported by the centre-left, who proposed it as an alternative to new elections. However, it became clear that these attempts were in vain as the political situation deteriorated. The date of the referendum has been fixed for 18 May 2008, but with new elections, analysts predict it will be delayed by at least one year.

Published: Wednesday 6 February 2008