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Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict |
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While the marked decrease in population growth in many countries and regions is good news for those concerned about global popula tion, it offers no clear relief for concerns about the security implications of population change.
As we cross into the new century, the world seems finally to have turned the corner on population growth. A combination of increased education for women, national and international support for policies of population planning and the spread of economic development and accompanying movement along the demographic transition frontier have led to falling population growth rates around the world. Whether among the behemoths—China and India—or among the smaller but rapidly growing nations—such as Saudi Arabia, Kenya and Malawi— population growth rates have dropped dramatically in the last decade.
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Last Updated on Monday, 23 February 2009 08:57 |
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The Political Demography of the World System, 2000-2050 |
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Population policies are deliberately constructed or modified institutional arrangements and/or specific programs through which governments influence, directly or indirectly, demographic change. For any given country, the aim of population policy may be narrowly construed as bringing about quantitative changes in the membership of the territorially circumscribed population under the government’s jurisdiction. Governments’ concern with population matters can also extend beyond the borders of their own jurisdictions. Thus, international aspects of population policy have become increasingly salient. Additions to the population are primarily the result of individual decisions concerning childbearing. Within the constraints of their social milieu, these decisions reflect an implicit calculus by parents about the private costs and benefits of children. But neither costs nor benefits of fertility are likely to be fully internal to the family: they can also impose burdens and advantages on others in the society. Such externalities, negative and positive, represent a legitimate concern for all those affected. The essay briefly discusses how individual and collective interests were reconciled in traditional societies, summarizes the population policy approaches adopted by the classic liberal state, and sketches government responses to the low-fertility demographic regime that emerged in the West between the two World Wars. In greater detail it considers international population policies after World War II and contemporary population policy responses to below-replacement fertility.
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Last Updated on Monday, 23 February 2009 08:59 |
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How will demographic changes influence the ground rules for security policy? Anyone wanting to gaze into the future is well advised to start with population data. Demographic projections are among the few sound assumptions social scientists can make about the future. Demographic shifts present policymakers with both potential and risks. Population developments will clearly have far-reaching implications for international security policy in decades to come.
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Last Updated on Monday, 23 February 2009 08:58 |
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Unprecedented levels of immigration to the UK have focused interest in trying to assess the financial and other impacts of immigration. Numerous reports have been published by a range of organisations, and the Government has set up a new body, the Migration Impacts Forum, to collect and discuss evidence on the effects which immigration is having on communities and public services throughout the UK. One of the main findings of these reports is that current statistics are inadequate for properly assessing the range and depth of impacts of immigration. Local authorities, schools and the police appear particularly affected and are seeking extra funding. But there seems to be an emerging consensus that the overall economic effect of migrant workers – whether positive or negative – is not likely to be large. Perhaps as important as the actual impacts of immigration is the public perception of it. It is increasingly recognised that Government policy must deal with both.
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Last Updated on Monday, 23 February 2009 08:59 |
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Demography