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In wake of Georgia war, Armenia faces Hobson's choice

The Georgia-Russia war has placed Armenia in a bind. Officials in Yerevan are feeling pressure to take sides, either supporting its strategic partner, Russia, or its neighbor, Georgia, through which 70 percent of Armenian exports flow. For now, Yerevan is trying to postpone its decision.

Economic issues have so far driven Yerevan’s response. But a factor looming in the background of any geopolitical discussion is Russia’s decision to recognize Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s independence. This has upped the stakes for Yerevan, as Armenian officials do not want to do anything that could impede the realization of their desires to see the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh break free from Azerbaijan.

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Georgia: Conflict mediation faces hurdles

The recent escalation of tensions in Georgia's frozen conflicts with its separatist provinces has enabled Tbilisi and its western allies to push harder for change in the peacekeeping and conflict resolution formats currently dominated by Moscow.

However, in spite of calls from Tbilisi and Washington for diversification of the formats, the latter could be blocked by the separatist regimes of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are recognized parties to the peace talks and whose consent is required for any significant change.

The past several weeks have seen violence flare up along lines separating Georgian forces from South Ossetia and Abkhazia and forces in spite of the presence of Russian peacekeepers, who operate under the auspices of the Commonwealth of Independent States with consent of all conflicting sides.

by Simon Saradzhyan in Moscow for ISN Security Watch

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Medvedev's Visit to Azerbaijan: Possible Scenarios in Energy Cooperation

from Turkish Weekly

View by Rovshan Ibrahimov - On July 3 2008, the new president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev official visit to Azerbaijan is expected. It is noteworthy that after the election, Medvedev as the president, first of his visits have been to the former Soviet Union republics. In particular, the first official visit took place to Kazakhstan. There is no doubt that Kazakhstan is a strategic partner of Russia. Between these countries the world's largest land border is taking place, Kazakhstan possesses a large Russian-speaking population on his territory, which has serious impact on the country.

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Israel-Iran: Attack or feint

By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch

In the wake of a major Israeli military exercise earlier this month, speculation is growing that the recurrent failure of diplomatic efforts is fostering a deterioration that may lead to a US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

According to reports, over 100 Israeli F-16s and F-15s took part in a major training operation over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece earlier this month, purportedly practicing maneuvers and refueling procedures crucial to a possible attack on Iran.

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A Sarkozy spin as France rejoins NATO command

by John Vinocur, International Herald Tribune

When Nicolas Sarkozy brings France back into NATO's unified command next year, he will want to celebrate it as a triumph for Europe's own defense identity. It's a very French spin on a step that more meaningfully signifies that the alliance, so often buried, is alive and kicking, and that Sarkozy, 42 years after Charles de Gaulle's decision to pull out of NATO's integrated military structure, thinks there's no more profit in France being seen as a reflex antagonist of the United States on issues like Iran, the Middle East, Russia and China.

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